Luck O The Irish Go For Gold

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Paired with the recent rise of prediction markets—which allow traders to stake money on everything from sporting events to pop culture outcomes—Americans are risking more money on casino-like activities than ever before.

Buffett has repeatedly raised concerns regarding the mainstreaming of gambling and its marketing under the guise of investing. In May, he targeted prediction markets and traders speculating on short-term instruments like 30-minute bitcoin options.

“If you’re buying or selling one-day options, that is not investing. It is not speculating. It is gambling,” Buffett said during an interview with CNBC. “There’s nobody who can explain why they’re buying an option for one day.”

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Cambodia’s gambling regulatory authority, the Commercial Gambling Management Commission of Cambodia (CGMC), is advancing plans to introduce a formal suitability screening process for casino licence renewals. 

The CGMC reviewed a draft of the new evaluation framework during a meeting chaired by Secretary General Yeth Vinel on 4 September. 

The proposed “integrity and quality” framework aims to establish minimum conditions that operators must meet to maintain or obtain a licence, signalling a strengthening of oversight in the sector. The details of the scoring criteria and an official implementation date remain unpublished.

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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”