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The biggest new uncertainty in US sports betting is prediction markets. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion in betting handle through US regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion handle recorded in 2025. These figures refer to the amount wagered, not sportsbook revenue.

Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

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“Our colleagues are our priority. We understand the concerns many will have. Impacted staff have been informed and are being fully supported throughout this process.”

Bet365 noted the impact of the UK government’s near doubling of the remote gaming duty, which increased from 21% to 40% on 1 April this year.

Additionally, a new remote betting duty is set to come in from April 2027, which will raise the effective tax rate on all sports betting products except horse racing from 15% to 25%.

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During a livestream on Sunday, he said he had met with “eight victims of online betting”. To reinforce his criticism of the sector and in an attempt to win over conservative voters, he pointed out that one gambler had made 1,400 instant fund transfers (Pix) to a betting site. Lula criticised the Central Bank for failing to detect such a high volume of transactions to a single company.

However, that responsibility does not lie with the Central Bank. It is the role of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets to monitor and regulate the sector. Betting companies submit detailed daily reports on bettors’ financial transactions with the sites. A specific module within Brazil’s betting management system detects recurring transfers.

“Today I met a young man who made 1,400 Pix transfers in three months, and the Central Bank didn’t detect that this was an excessive number of transfers to the same company?” Lula said.